Summary of Last Week

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Summary of Last Week
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Ukraine-Russia tension continues. France and Germany called Russia to give up the military buildup to the Donbass. Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed a four-way summit, in which Putin will also attend. Russia has accelerated to direct its warships to the Black Sea and warned the USA to "stay away from our coasts". The USA has announced that they gave up sending 2 warships to the Black Sea. England informed Turkey that two of their warships will pass through the Bosphorus 15 days in advance as required by the Montreux…Satellite images show that Russia has piled up around 150 soldiers in Crimea…It also attracted attention that, after the military build-up on land, Russia accelerated the diverting of warships from other regions to the Black Sea.

The US President Joe Biden, putting his supporting Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine tension. The next day, he imposed new sanctions against Russia, while he was making a BILATERAL SUMMIT OFFER in a third country by sending messages of softening with Putin. Russia's response to the US sanctions in retaliation has shown that a new phase has been reached in the US-RUSSIA tension!

After four years, To resolve the Cyprus problem again leaders are meeting around the table. The talks will be held in Geneva, Switzerland and organized by the United Nations between April 27-29. The Greek side goes to the summit with the "TWO STATE FEDERATION" and the Turkish side with the "TWO INDEPENDENT STATES ON THE ISLAND" thesis.

Before the summit, the Cyprus Constitutional Court's decision to close the Koran courses on the grounds of secularism created a crisis between Nicosia and Ankara.

Starting with President Erdogan there was a strong reaction from the government. 

While TRNC President gave assurance that "Koran courses will not be closed", the opposition and the Bar Association held a demonstration to protest the Turkey 

After the elections which was under the supervision of the United Nations in Geneva, in February the Libyan Transitional National Government was created Prime Minister Dibeyb Abdulhamid was elected, he visited Ankara together with an accompanying official delegation.

After the visit to Ankara, explanations were made which included alongside the strengthening of bilateral relations in the affirmation of the commitment to the Agreement on Maritime Border, it was highlighted as an important gain for Turkey.

Central Bank (CB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had a meeting on April 15th held by the new chairman Prof. Şahap Kavcıoğlu. As expected, he kept the policy rate applied as the weekly repo interest at 19 percent.

The CPI inflation, which rose above 16 percent in March, made it increasingly impossible for Kavcıoğlu to cut interest rates. Producer inflation exceeding 30 percent and the CPI difference exceeding 15 percent is considered as a sign that the interest rate cut is difficult in the upcoming period.

CB's end-year inflation target is 9.4 percent. However, in the latest March survey announced by the CB, the year-end inflation expectation rose to 11.5 percent. Starting with the IMF many international organizations, had revised upwards their expectations for the macro indicators related to Turkey. The IMF has raised its inflation expectation to 13.2 percent for the end of this year.

During the pandemic period, the tourism industry is facing difficult times.Four days after the plane bringing the first Russian tourist convoy of 212 people on April 11th to Bodrum-Milas airport who were welcomed with a ceremony and flowers, the decision to restrict travel to Turkey by the Russian government, was the first shock of 2021 for the tourism industry who suffered great losses last year 

The German government included Turkey in the 'High Risk Countries' group. Britain, extended indefinitely the travel restrictions for Turkey that was supposed to end on May 17th.


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